|
In the best case, the States will perceive that
the planned Amendment is to the benefit of both the People and the States, and
will adopt and later ratify the Amendment. The costs in this case would probably
be just a few million dollars.
This scenario supposes a lack of State support,
so that the People have to force the issue through votes to pass State
initiatives and to demand that their elected representative vote in favor of the
planned Citizens' Initiatives Amendment.
The non-governmental costs of Initiatives to
endorse this planned Amendment in all the 24 States that allow State
Initiatives would be about $160 million. These estimates are based on linear
interpolation of the range of actual initiative costs and State information
provided in the sources.
|
State
Initiative Cost Estimates |
|
|
STATES WITH DIRECT INITIATIVES |
INDIRECT INITIATIVES |
INITIATIVE COSTS |
|
STATE |
STATUTE |
CONSTITUTIONAL |
|
Alaska |
|
|
X |
2,700,000 |
|
Arizona |
X |
X |
|
6,500,000 |
|
Arkansas |
X |
X |
|
4,300,000 |
|
California |
X |
X |
|
29,700,000 |
|
Colorado |
X |
X |
|
5,700,000 |
|
Florida |
|
X |
|
15,400,000 |
|
Idaho |
X |
|
|
3,300,000 |
|
Illinois |
|
X |
|
12,000,000 |
|
Maine |
|
|
X |
3,200,000 |
|
Massachusetts |
|
|
X |
7,200,000 |
|
Michigan |
|
X |
X |
10,000,000 |
|
Mississippi |
|
|
X |
4,400,000 |
|
Missouri |
X |
X |
|
6,600,000 |
|
Montana |
X |
X |
|
2,900,000 |
|
Nebraska |
X |
X |
|
3,600,000 |
|
Nevada |
|
X |
X |
3,900,000 |
|
North Dakota |
X |
X |
|
2,700,000 |
|
Ohio |
|
X |
X |
11,100,000 |
|
Oklahoma |
X |
X |
|
4,900,000 |
|
Oregon |
X |
X |
|
5,000,000 |
|
South Dakota |
X |
X |
|
2,800,000 |
|
Utah |
X |
|
X |
4,000,000 |
|
Washington |
X |
|
X |
7,000,000 |
|
Wyoming |
|
|
X |
2,600,000 |
|
24 |
14 |
+5 |
+5 |
161,500,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DISTRIBUTION OF COSTS |
|
|
|
Broadcast Advertising |
70,400,000 |
|
|
|
Advertising Literature |
28,900,000 |
|
|
|
General Expenses |
18,300,000 |
|
|
|
Consultants |
16,600,000 |
|
|
|
Signature Gathering |
11,600,000 |
|
|
|
Outdoor Advertising |
6,600,000 |
|
|
|
Newspaper Advertising |
4,300,000 |
|
|
|
Fund raising |
2,400,000 |
|
|
|
Travel |
2,400,000 |
|
|
|
|
161,500,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sources of Data: |
|
Schevitz, Jan A., The Fourth
Branch of Government. May 2000 |
|
Kearsley, Steve, San Francisco Chronicle. May 18-20, 1998 |
|
Initiatives & Referendum Institute |
The remaining 26 States plus those Initiative
States that do not support the Initiative will cost considerably more than the
initiative States themselves. Thus, a rough guesstimate is that total costs will
run on the order of $500 million.
Until the effort to support and adopt this
planned Amendment is underway, the estimate is inevitably very uncertain. Just
based on a guess that the final estimate will probably lie between the two
extremes, a "talking" guesstimate for the moment is about $250 million. This
will can be refined as the States' positions become clearer.
|
