STATE CITIZENS' INITIATIVES ASSEMBLY
an
Alternative to Popular Signature Petitions
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Introduction
Though State problems are different from the U.S. government
problems, State Citizens' Initiative Assemblies (SCIA)
could solve many
problems with the signature-petition initiative process
currently experienced
by the States—for example:
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Special interests groups
increasingly usurp the
state initiative process.
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Often, there is
no quality control of State initiatives other than to ensure
that they comply with the law.
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Generally, signature gatherers present only pro-initiative
information thereby misleading signers.
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There is no
feedback mechanism
for Citizens to influence the wording of an initiative.
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The
State incurs large costs to verify signatures.
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The
number of initiatives can be excessive and overwhelm the voters.
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Initiative's text, title and slogans often confuse and mislead
voters.
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Inappropriate initiatives often waste voters' time.
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Opinions
distributed to voters often present a one-sided perspective.
Replacing signature
petitions with an assembly almost entirely precludes these
problems. The
planned USCIA solution in this web site should prove helpful to
States as a reference in developing a SCIA Legislative Referendum.
Unfortunately, the SCIA approach
does not
scale down proportionally from the U.S. population to a
State population. However, the shorter distances in a State should
permit SCIA members the convenience to meet on weekends rather than
weekdays. Larger States should find the
cost of a SCIA to
be entirely acceptable.
Any of the States could implement a SCIA by constitutional
referendum. Alternatively, voters in
the 16 States permitting
direct constitutional initiatives could
propose a SCIA to replace
state
signature petitions. This will benefit the
States,
probably expanding from the initial states to other states and large
cities. It will also
advance this Amendment by increasing familiarity and confidence in the
Solution's nationwide implementation.
Economy of Scale
Theoretically,
any State could use the Assembly process
instead of its signature petition process for qualifying
initiatives. Unfortunately, a smaller population does not lead to
any significant reduction in the size of the Assembly needed
represent the views of the people to equal accuracy. As shown in the
graph below, to achieve equal ± 4.5 percent accuracy in the least
populated State of Wyoming (just over 500 thousand), the size of the
Assembly would not even be one-half person less than the size of the
U.S. Assembly (U.S. population about 300 million).
As a reference point at the
high end of the graph, a sample size of 1,070 randomly
selected registered voters give a nationwide poll a
theoretical ability to predict the opinion of the nation to
± (plus or minus)
three percent in 19 out of 20 polls. However, telephone
pollsters usually gather the data. A significant proportion
of the polling sample normally decline to participate.
Expert statisticians replace those who decline to participate
with
people who have similar socio-economic-age-race backgrounds. This
reduces the polling accuracy to a degree dependent on how well the
experts select the replacements. The size of this sample (over 1,000) is greater than
the size of a
national assembly and beyond the feasible range for a Citizens' Initiatives
Assembly.
The Athenian example is the smallest, with at most about
45,000
citizens eligible to vote—i.e., excluding women, slaves,
non-citizens and non-adults from the total population. Their
500-member Citizens' Assembly (they called it the “Council
of Five-Hundred" or "Boule")
would give them a confidence interval of about ± 4.35 percent in
predicting what the citizens wanted to vote on—assuming that their
random selection by lot was good, which it probably was not by
today’s standards. The cost of a 500-voter assembly would be very
high in a modern developed society of this size.
At a State level, the smaller States may decide they cannot afford a
Citizen Assembly and opt for the signature petition method. On the
other hand, some large Cities may decide that they can afford it.
For those preferring the Assembly solution, State or City Citizens'
Initiative Assemblies can change some features and achieve
substantial cost saving.
British Columbia
demonstrated this
in 2004. For example:
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Reduce the standard of accuracy for the cross-section from
± 4.5% to perhaps ± 7.5% by using only a 150 to 180 person Assembly.
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Reduce the
maximum number of Initiatives to less than those at the U.S.
level.
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Reduce the Assembly meeting length to two-day weekend
meetings—taking advantage of shorter travel times compared to a
nationwide system and minimizing members' work disruption.
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Take two or more votes on a Candidate Initiative with
different Assembly membership several months to a year apart
to increase the accuracy—i.e., improving the confidence interval
while keeping a smaller Assembly size.
Hypothetically,
adding the confidence interval to the Assembly passing-vote
percentage can offset the reduced accuracy of representation. For example, if the confidence
interval were ± 8%, the Assembly vote to pass a candidate initiative
would be a supermajority of 58 percent. On the other hand, this supermajority
requirement could hamstring the Assembly into
inaction on important issues. Moreover, it departs from the
fundamental idea of majority rule for issues not affecting
constitutional issues and, in particular, individual rights.
Consequently, the U.S. Citizens'
Initiative Assembly rules do not incorporate this idea. Instead, a Candidate Initiative requires two
separate passing votes.
This could reduce the State or City costs to perhaps 25
percent—i.e.,
$15-$20
million per year—of that experienced at the nationwide level.
The number of Voters that one Assembly member represents is the key factor affecting the per-capita cost. For example,
using rough guesstimates:
|
Rough Cost
Comparisons for Various Constituency Sizes |
|
Constituency |
Citizens Eligible
to Vote |
Number of
Assembly
Members |
Confidence
Interval |
Voters per
Assembly
Member |
Annual Cost
of Assembly
Dollars |
Annual Cost
per Voter |
|
1. Nationwide |
195,000,000 |
480 |
±4.5% |
406,000 |
60,000,000 |
31¢ |
|
2.
Typical State |
4,000,000 |
180 |
±7.3% |
22,000 |
20,000,000 |
$5 |
|
3. Least Populous States |
500,000 |
150 |
±8.0% |
2,300 |
15,000,000 |
$43 |
|
4. Ancient Athens |
45,000 |
500 |
±4.4% |
90 |
30,000,000 |
$670 |
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Notes:
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At a nationwide
level, there are about 406,000 Voters per Member, so the approach is
very cost effective. The on-going annual cost of the U.S. Assembly
per Voter will be about $0.31 per year per voter.
(i.e., $60,000,000 annual budget/(480 members*406,000 voters
per member) = $0.31)
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Costs for a typical State with say 4,000,000 eligible voters
might be about $5 per year per voter.
(i.e., $20,000,000/(180 members*22,000
voters per member) = $5)
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However, in the least populated states with about 350,000
eligible voters, the cost per voter would run about
$43 per year
per voter. (i.e., $15,000,000/(150 members*2,300
voters per member) = $43)
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On the other hand, the ancient Athenians, with only about
45,000 voters, were willing to pay a far greater price to
maintain their
democracy—in today's
terms, probably about $670
per year per voter.
(i.e., $30,000,000/(500 members*90 voters
per member) = $670)
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At a nationwide level, the
approach is very cost effective.
Costs for a typical state
are reasonable. However, in the least populated states, costs are
rather high. On the other hand, the ancient Athenians were
willing to pay dearly to protect their rights.
A "rules of thumb"
is apparent from this chart. If the electorate's size doubles, the
assembly cost per voter decreases to half. The reverse is also true.
Each State and large City will have its own views on the use of
Citizens' Initiatives Assemblies. They differ greatly in population,
geography, political philosophy, constitution and laws. Each one
will generally have its own unique design requirements. These are
beyond the scope of this web site and need addressing
independently to avoid confusion. The information on this
web site should provide a useful reference point. If one of them
adopts a Citizen Assembly to replace their signature
petition system, if only for a trial, this will provide valuable
confirmation and impetus for the planned nationwide system.
Some may argue that the focus
should be starting a demonstration of the Citizens'
Initiatives Assembly before starting the Citizens'
Initiatives Amendment process. There is logical merit to
this view. However, the impetus to conduct the
demonstration is not currently in place. Starting the
Amendment process in a few states first will generate the
political impetus to start the demonstration.
It will be
easiest for states and cities that already have both
constitutional and legislative direct initiatives to
demonstrate a Citizens' Initiative Assembly. The cost of the
assembly per capita will be least in those with the larger
populations. Using an arbitrary cutoff of one million
persons, 8 states and 5 cities qualify:
States and Cities
with Constitutional and Legislative Direct
Initiatives
and Populations Over One Million |
|
State or City |
Approximate Population
2003-2006 Extrapolated Census Data |
Approximate Annual Cost Per
Capita |
|
California |
35,484,000 |
0.56 |
|
Missouri |
5,704,000 |
3.51 |
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Arizona |
5,581,000 |
3.58 |
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Colorado |
4,551,000 |
4.39 |
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Los Angeles, CA |
3,849,000 |
5.20 |
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Oregon |
3,560,000 |
5.62 |
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Oklahoma |
3,512,000 |
5.69 |
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Arkansas |
2,726,000 |
7.34 |
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Houston, TX |
2,144,000 |
9.33 |
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Nebraska |
1,739,000 |
11.50 |
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Phoenix, AZ |
1,513,000 |
13.22 |
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San Antonio, TX |
1,297,000 |
15.42 |
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San Diego, CA |
1,257,000 |
15.91 |
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Note: |
1. Annual costs per
capita are calculated assuming the
Assembly has
about 180 Members and an annual cost of
$20,000,000.
2. Data from Census
Bureau,
I&RI-States,
I&RI-Cities, and Wikipedia |
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The annual
cost is tolerable in all of these states and cities.
However, in California the cost per capita is clearly far
lower than in the others. Moreover, a citizen's initiatives
assembly will cost far less than California's current cost
for signature petitions. (Note, the above table has costs
per capita while other data on this page has costs per voter.)
In all of
these states and cities, the decision to replace their
signature petitions with a Citizens' Assembly can be made by
initiative or referendum.
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